Prospective Life Cycle Assessment Research Articles

Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of Biological Methanation in a Trickle-Bed Pilot Plant and a Potential Scale-Up

The fluctuating nature of renewable energies results in the need for sustainable storage technologies to defossilize the energy system without other negative consequences for humans and the environment. In this study, a pilot-scale trickle-bed reactor for biological methanation and various scale-up scenarios for 2024 and 2050 were investigated using life cycle assessment. A best- and worst-case scenario for technology development until 2050 was evolved using cross-consistency analysis and a morphological field, based on which the data for the ecological models were determined. The results show that the plant scale-up has a very positive effect on the ecological consequences of methanation. In the best-case scenario, the values are a factor of 23–780 lower than those of the actual plant today. A hot-spot analysis showed that electrolysis operation has an especially large impact on total emissions. The final Monte Carlo simulation shows that the technology is likely to achieve a low global warming potential with a median of 104.0 kg CO2-eq/MWh CH4 and thus can contribute to decarbonization.

Coupling material and energy flow analysis with life cycle assessment to support circular strategies at the urban level

Abstract Purpose This study aims to investigate how the coupling of Material and Energy Flow Analysis (MEFA) with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) under an urban metabolism (UM) perspective (referred to as the UM-LCA approach) can support the design, evaluation, and monitoring of urban-level circular strategies. For this purpose, we apply the UM-LCA approach to the urban area of Umeå (Sweden) by expanding the goal and scope of a recent MEFA study conducted by the authors of the article. Methods The modeling combines MEFA with LCA and is performed both retrospectively and prospectively. The MEFA was performed in the prior study following a bottom-up approach to map and quantify material and energy flows in the urban system at the sectoral level. The quantified flows are used in the present study to construct the life cycle inventory (LCI) model of the urban system. The LCI model is first used as a basis of the retrospective LCA (rLCA), which is conducted to assess the environmental performance of the urban system with its sectors. The LCI model is then modified according to future scenarios and is used as a basis of the prospective LCA (pLCA), which is performed to assess the environmental implications of implementing circular strategies in the future. Results and discussion The rLCA shows that the construction and household sectors are major drivers of environmental impacts in the urban system, with households being the largest contributors to 11 out of 12 analyzed impact categories. It also reveals the most impacting flows within these sectors, including food in households and steel in the construction sector. These findings indicate that the construction and household sectors and their most impacting flows should be prioritized in a circular strategy. Furthermore, the pLCA highlights that a future circular strategy promoting reductions in the material used in these two sectors could lead to higher reductions in all impact categories, ranging from 4.3 to 8.6%, than a strategy focused only on recycling, which could lead to reductions ranging from 0.2 to 1.2%. Conclusions This study concludes that the UM-LCA approach has great potential to comprehensively analyze, both retrospectively and prospectively, the environmental performance of an urban system providing valuable insights that could support policy makers in designing, assessing, and monitoring urban-level circular strategies. However, further research should address identified limitations of the UM-LCA approach (e.g., limited available data, inability to consider social and economic aspects) to facilitate its applicability and enhance its comprehensiveness.

A comparative prospective life cycle assessment of coal-fired power plants in the US with MEA/MOF-based carbon capture

The adoption of carbon capture technology in coal-fired power plants is expected to play a pivotal role in the energy transition. This study conducted consequential life cycle assessments (CLCAs) of coal-fired power generation in the United States using policy-level accounting. Monoethanolamine (MEA)-based and Mg-MOF-74-based carbon capture have been introduced, with a comparative analysis conducted on the emissions reduction potential of these two materials through their respective mechanisms of absorption and adsorption. The results indicate that carbon capture based on MEA or Mg-MOF-74 can significantly reduce emissions from coal-fired power generation, decreasing from 779.5 Mt CO2e to 50.1 Mt CO2e and 61.1 Mt CO2e in 2050, respectively. The introduction of ultra-supercritical power plants and carbon capture reduced direct emissions from 92% to 51%. MEA outperforms Mg-MOF-74 slightly, with lower emissions due to solvents and cleaning processes. Deviations in Mg-MOF-74's adsorption capacity and degradation rate could lead to 4%–6% model outcome variations. It is also concluded that the stability of MEA's marginal emissions depends on a steady expansion of existing production capacity, while the marginal emissions of Mg-MOF-74 are anticipated to remain unchanged. This study emphasizes carbon capture's potential but stresses the need for prompt implementation and comprehensive assessments before deployment decisions.

A machine learning based method for parametric environmental impact model for electric vehicles

Environmental managers attempt to increasingly incorporate precautionary principles into decision making. The literature lacks Machine Learning -based approaches for forewarning lifecycle environmental impacts. This paper proposes a method to support electric vehicle design. The main innovation of the work lays in merging Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Machine Learning foundations to provide support and awareness to designers. The present approach overcomes the present literature because it provides a method for the design phase, is based on a well-established methodology (LCA) and provides quantitative results from little inputs. The approach exploits machine Learning Methods to develop models with the design features of a generic electric vehicle (such as vehicle mass and distance traveled) in six phases (Problem definition; Data collection; Data Preparation; Modeling; Model evaluation; Model interpretation). Differently from existing environmental analyses, all stages of the product life cycle have been considered in building the database; moreover, the model provides quantitative results. Regression models and supervised algorithms were used. The obtained model can be used by product engineers, as well as those not experts on LCA. Moreover, the model guarantees the database and hypothesis's uniqueness, ensuring the results coherence and comparability. The level of accuracy obtained in the case study (error or 17%) is comparable with studies handling full environmental analysis (that should be more accurate), and outstanding, as the present case is for the design phase. Future works will focus on additional significative indicators, similar electric vehicle design and integration with prospective LCA approaches.

Environmental Impact Prediction of a New Tire Vulcanization Activator.

Zinc oxide (ZnO) is the most common curing activator used to manufacture tires. To minimize environmental impacts by decreasing the zinc content and rolling resistance of tires, ZnO nanoparticles (NPs) anchored on SiO2 NPs (ZnO@SiO2) are currently under development as new activators at the pilot scale. Here, we applied prospective life cycle assessment to predict the impacts on human health, ecosystem quality, and resource scarcity of synthesizing ZnO@SiO2 for the production of passenger car tires at an industrial scale. We found that the life cycle impacts of the synthesis are expected to decrease by 89 to 96% between the pilot and industrial scale. The largest contributors to the synthesis of ZnO@SiO2 were electricity consumption and waste treatment of the solvent. Using the new activator for tire production led to potential reductions of 9 to 12% in life cycle impacts compared to tires that are currently in use. Those reductions were due to the expected decrease in rolling resistance, leading to lower fuel consumption, which outweighed the additional environmental impacts of the synthesis, as well as the potential decrease in lifetime. Our work highlights an opportunity for manufacturers to mitigate their impacts over the full life cycle of the tire.

Decarbonizing the cement industry: Findings from coupling prospective life cycle assessment of clinker with integrated assessment model scenarios

In the race to achieve global climate neutrality, carbon intensive industries like the clinker and cement industry are required to decarbonize rapidly. The environmental impacts related to potential transition pathways to low-carbon systems can be evaluated using prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA). This study conducts a pLCA for future global clinker production, integrating long-term transition pathways from the IMAGE integrated assessment model (IAM) to maintain global consistency. It systematically modifies the ecoinvent v3.9.1 database using the Python library premise to create future database versions representing future clinker production embedded in a future economy according to a 3.5°C-baseline, a 2°C-compliant and a 1.5°C-compliant scenario. Our study indicates that climate change impacts of clinker production may decrease from about 1.03 kg CO2-eq/kg clinker in 2020 to 0.94 (3.5°C-baseline), 0.20 (2°C-compliant), and 0.16 (1.5°C-compliant) kg CO2-eq/kg clinker in 2060 for the global average. This corresponds to a 10% (3.5°C-baseline), 81% (2°C-compliant) and 84% (1.5°C-compliant) decrease by 2060 compared to 2020. Under these scenarios, global clinker production alone would require 5%–11% of the remaining end-of-century carbon budget for the 2 °C and 1.5 °C-target, respectively. While the climate change impacts are substantially reduced, our study also indicates that the transition pathways shift the burden towards other impact categories, such as ionizing radiation, ozone depletion, material resources and land use. Developing IAM-compatible scenarios for more product groups helps to increase the coherence of pLCA studies. As this study is based on an IAM heavily reliant on carbon capture and storage and bioenergy, future research should explore the effects of different technology pathways and alternative mitigation strategies.

O22: Postoperative Telemedicine is feasible and sustainable; a prospective life-cycle assessment approach to carbon footprint analysis

Abstract Introduction The NHS must provide a net zero service by 2045. Innovative strategies are required to quantify, evaluate and implement environmentally friendly interventions into practice. The study evaluates the feasibility and sustainability of remote post-operative follow-up using novel methodology. Methods Patients were reviewed remotely and face-to-face at 30 days post-operatively. A prospective life-cycle assessment(LCA) approach to carbon footprint analysis was used to calculate carbon emissions kgCO2e. Patient postcodes were applied to conversion factors to calculate travel emissions. Median(IQR) kgCO2e saved were presented. Carbon offsetting values are based on kgCO2e sequestered by a standardised UK variety tree. Results 31 participants(M:F 2.4, 66.7±11.7 years) were included. The median return distance for patient travel was 42.5km(7.2-58.7). Median reduction using remote follow-up was 41.2 kgCO2e(24.5-80.3) per patient(P<0.001). Using remote follow-up is equivalent to planting 1 tree for every 6.9 patients reviewed. Every readmission with SSI results in an additional 1219.93 kgCO2e. Discussion This model shows that the prospective LCA approach is achievable. Implementation of an asynchronous follow-up model is effective in substantially reducing the carbon footprint of a tertiary vascular surgical centre. Further work is needed to corroborate these findings on a larger scale and incorporate kgCO2e into cost analysis of SSI monitoring strategies. 

A prospective life cycle assessment of global ammonia decarbonisation scenarios

A prospective life cycle assessment was performed for global ammonia production across 26 regions from 2020 to 2050. The analysis was based on the IEA Ammonia Roadmap and IMAGE electricity scenarios model for three climate scenarios related to a mean surface temperature increase of 3.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C by 2100. Combining these models with a global perspective and new life cycle inventories improves ammonia's robustness, quality, and applicability in prospective life cycle assessments. It reveals that complete decarbonisation of the ammonia industry by 2050 is unlikely from a life cycle perspective because of residual emissions in the supply chain, even in the most ambitious scenario. However, strong policies in the 1.5 °C scenario could significantly reduce climate impacts by up to 70% per kilogram of ammonia. The cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from the ammonia supply chain between 2020 and 2050 are estimated at 24, 21, and 15 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent for the 3.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C scenarios, respectively. The paper examines challenges in achieving these scenarios, noting that electrolysis-based (yellow) ammonia, contingent on electricity decarbonisation, offers a cleaner production pathway. However, achieving significant GHG reductions is complex, requiring advancements in technologies with lower readiness, like carbon capture and storage and methane pyrolysis. The study also discusses limitations such as the need to reduce urea demand, potential growth in ammonia as a fuel, reliance on CO2 transport and storage, expansion of renewable energy, raw material scarcity, and the longevity of existing plants. It highlights potential shifts in environmental impacts, such as increased land, metal, and mineral use in scenarios with growing renewable electricity and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.

Towards sustainable regional aviation: Environmental potential of hybrid-electric aircraft and alternative fuels

The aviation sector needs to reduce its environmental impacts, like climate change and air pollution. New hybrid-electric aircraft concepts may contribute to abating part of these impacts. But to what extent and under which conditions? This study addresses these questions in the context of regional aviation and identifies technologies and concrete actions required for more environmentally sustainable aviation. The environmental impacts of emerging hybrid-electric aircraft configurations deployed in 2030, 2040, and 2050 have been comprehensively quantified using prospective life cycle assessment. The entire life cycle of the conventional and hybrid-electric aircraft configurations was encompassed, covering various technologies and systems like batteries, fuel cells, hydrogen, and selected alternative aviation fuel (AAF) systems. For these elements, detailed life cycle inventories stemming from primary data, literature, and prospective environmental databases were used, and uncertainty was evaluated. Results showed that hybrid-electric aircraft with Li-ion batteries appear as a promising transition technology in the short-term while aircraft propelled by fuel cells using hydrogen from electrolysis yield important environmental benefits relative to conventional aircraft in longer time horizons. In contrast, the studied AAFs present little or no environmental benefits when considering environmental impacts holistically, demonstrating the need to revise existing AAF frameworks and incentives globally. Environmental burden-shifting from flight emissions in conventional aircraft systems to airport operations and aircraft manufacturing in hybrid-electric aircraft is also observed in the results, thus calling for strengthened support to airports in their sustainability management and increased integration of ecodesign practices in future aircraft design and development.

Steering Innovation toward Sustainable Electrochromic Displays: A Prospective Life Cycle Assessment Study

Steering Innovation toward Sustainable Electrochromic Displays: A Prospective Life Cycle Assessment Study

Prospective assessment of transformation pathways toward low-carbon steelmaking: Evaluating economic and climate impacts in Germany

Due to climate change, there is an urgent need to decarbonize high-emission industries. As coal-based operations predominate in primary steelmaking, the steel industry offers an exceptionally high potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Alternative processes for almost fully decarbonized primary steelmaking exist but require substantial investments by steelmakers for their implementation while maintaining desired production levels during the transformation periods. In this context, the energy carriers required change such that the transformation of the steelmaking processes is deeply intertwined with the transformation of the background system. For the first time, we evaluate potential transformation pathways from the steelmakers’ perspective using a prospective life cycle assessment approach. We find that hydrogen may facilitate a reduction of direct emissions by around 96 % compared to conventional steelmaking in 2050. However, indirect emissions remain at a high level throughout the transformation period unless the upstream stages of the value chain are transformed accordingly.

On the intersection between prospective LCA and patent analysis. A theoretical discussion

The prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA) methodology allows to estimate the future environmental impacts of emerging technologies and immature products not yet on the market. To make up for the lack of information on the product, the pLCA makes extensive use of secondary data, taken from various sources including patents which contain prospective information of industrial interest. To date, there have been attempts to show the potential of patent analysis in supporting pLCA, but never extensively and as proposed in this work with a truly systematic approach. In fact, this study aims to demonstrate how an accurate analysis of the information contained within patents can provide solutions to a number of open problems underlying the pLCA. More specifically, it was shown how patents can serve for: the support to experts in technological forecasting, the definition of scenario ranges, the support to the background and foreground systems modelling, the comparison of the future diffusion of a mature and an emerging technology, the support to the projections based on pathways to reach policy reductions to ensure time consistency. For each question, it was explained how to decline the patent analysis, i.e. which parts of the patents to analyse and how.

Analyzing the impact of geographic variability on emissions reduction and cost efficiency in automotive lightweighting strategies

Lightweight design is crucial in automotive design, especially for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), as it can extend driving range or minimize battery size for a set distance. However, the choice of materials like high-strength steels, while beneficial for vehicle weight, often carries greater environmental costs during production. A comprehensive analysis considering the entire lifecycle and electricity sources is essential to identify truly eco-friendly materials. The market introduction of innovative materials like green steel and recycled products further complicates the selection process due to increased competition. Current assessments of lightweight strategies are complex and challenging to compare, highlighting a research gap in easy-to-understand and actionable evaluations. This study aims to investigate automotive lightweighting across various propulsion systems and regions using prospective Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). It introduces a novel approach by examining how the mix of electricity generation affects the environmental benefits of lightweight materials. A new Key Performance Indicator (KPI) is proposed to help those with limited LCA expertise evaluate the environmental impact of different structural materials. The research also provides visual tools and analyzes cost savings from lower lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions, presenting a rounded view of the economic and environmental advantages of diverse lightweight strategies.

Terminology for future-oriented life cycle assessment: review and recommendations

PurposeSome future-oriented life cycle assessment (LCA) terms, particularly prospective and ex-ante, show notable increase in use in publications over the last decade. However, scholars have pointed out that it is currently unclear exactly what these terms mean and how they are related. This paper aims to explain defining differences between future-oriented LCA terms and provide terminology recommendations.MethodsExisting definitions of future-oriented LCA terms were reviewed and analyzed. Workshops were held where defining differences of future-oriented LCA terms were discussed.ResultsTemporal positionality and technology maturity appear to be two critical aspects of future-oriented LCA. Prospective and ex-ante LCA are similar, with the possible difference that ex-ante LCA always involves an increase in technology maturity in the future. Considering the notable similarities, it seems reasonable to converge terms to mitigate field fragmentation and avoid terminology confusion.ConclusionsTo denote LCA studies with a future temporal positionality, we recommend using the term prospective LCA, defined as “LCA that models the product system at a future point in time relative to the time at which the study is conducted”. Furthermore, since technology maturity is clearly a critical aspect for prospective LCA, we recommend prospective LCA studies to clearly define the maturity of the technologies modeled in the production system.

Environmental and material criticality assessment of hydrogen production via anion exchange membrane electrolysis

The need to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions is driving the development of existing and new technologies to produce and use hydrogen. Anion exchange membrane electrolysis is one of these rapidly developing technologies and presents promising characteristics for efficient hydrogen production. However, the environmental performance and the material criticality of anion exchange membrane electrolysis must be assessed. In this work, prospective life cycle assessment and criticality assessment are applied, first, to identify environmental and material criticality hotspots within the production of anion exchange membrane electrolysis units and, second, to benchmark hydrogen production against proton exchange membrane electrolysis. From an environmental point of view, the catalyst spraying process heavily dominates the ozone depletion impact category, while the production of the membrane represents a hotspot in terms of the photochemical ozone formation potential. For the other categories, the environmental impacts are distributed across different components. The comparison of hydrogen production via anion exchange membrane electrolysis and proton exchange membrane electrolysis shows that both technologies involve a similar life-cycle environmental profile due to similar efficiencies and the leading role of electricity generation for the operation of electrolysis. Despite the fact that for proton exchange membrane electrolysis much less material is required due to a higher lifetime, anion exchange membrane electrolysis shows significantly lower raw material criticality since it does not rely on platinum-group metals. Overall, a promising environmental and material criticality performance of anion exchange membrane electrolysis for hydrogen production is concluded, subject to the expected technical progress for this technology.

Prospective LCA of alkaline and PEM electrolyser systems

This prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) compares the environmental impacts of alkaline electrolyser (AE) and proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyser systems for green hydrogen production with a special focus on the stack components. The study evaluates both baseline and near-future advanced designs, considering cradle-to-gate life cycle from material production to operation. The electricity source followed by the stacks are identified as major contributors to environmental impacts. No clear winner emerges between AE and PEM in relation to environmental impacts. The advanced designs show a reduced impact in most categories compared to baseline designs which can mainly be attributed to the increased current density. Advanced green hydrogen production technologies outperform grey and blue hydrogen production technologies in all impact categories, except for minerals and metals resource use due to rare earth metals in the stacks. Next to increasing current density, decreasing minimal load requirements. improving sustainable mining practices (including waste treatment) and low carbon intensity steel production routes can enhance the environmental performance of electrolyser systems, aiding the transition to sustainable hydrogen production.

Integrating ex-ante and prospective life-cycle assessment for advancing the environmental impact analysis of emerging bio-based technologies

Unlike the fossil-based alternatives, many emerging bio-based technologies are still at the early lab or pilot scale and are not representative of optimized industrial conditions. This makes a robust comparison of their environmental performances via life-cycle assessment (LCA) challenging. We propose a framework to combine scaling-up projections of early-stage technologies (ex-ante LCA) with the influence of future socio-economic scenarios (prospective LCA), using a range of new bio-based polymers produced from forest residues as case study. The combined framework takes a step-by-step approach in modifying process inventories and projecting them to a future industrial scale for the environmental impact assessment. In our case study, the climate change impact from lab-scale processes decreases from 105–471 kg CO2-eq./kg of polymer to 9–14 kg CO2-eq./kg after the application of ex-ante LCA, with the highest reduction (83 %) coming from identified process synergies (e.g., solvent recovering). Combining the ex-ante and prospective LCA additionally reduces the impact up to 56 % by 2050, relative to ex-ante LCA results only. Other environmental impacts decrease as well, particularly freshwater eutrophication (up to 99 % reduction), photochemical oxidant formation (99 %), and marine eutrophication (98 %). The framework secures a more robust comparison of emerging bio-based products with conventional fossil-based alternatives, and as such it helps the identification of the improvements in both the bio-based technological processes and background supply chains that are needed to make bio-based systems outperform their fossil counterparts. A consistent integration of ex-ante and prospective LCA is instrumental to prioritize research and investments for upscaling the early-stage technologies that are most promising from a sustainability perspective, and ultimately guide a sustainable transition towards a circular bioeconomy.

Prospective life cycle assessment of sodium‐ion batteries made from abundant elements

AbstractBatteries are enablers for reducing fossil‐fuel dependency and climate‐change impacts. In this study, a prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) of large‐scale production of two different sodium‐ion battery (SIB) cells is performed with a cradle‐to‐gate system boundary. The SIB cells modeled have Prussian white cathodes and hard carbon anodes based only on abundant elements and thus constitute potentially preferable options to current lithium‐ion battery (LIB) cells from a mineral resource scarcity point of view. The functional unit was 1 kWh theoretical electricity storage capacity, and the specific energy density of the cells was 160 Wh/kg. Data for the cathode active material come from a large‐scale facility under construction and data for the SIB cell production is based on a large‐scale LIB cell gigafactory. For other SIB cell materials, prospective inventory data was obtained from a generic eight‐step procedure developed, which can be used by other LCA practitioners. The results show that both SIB cells indeed have considerably lower mineral resource scarcity impacts than nickel‐manganese‐cobalt (NMC)‐type LIB cells in a cradle‐to‐gate perspective, while their global warming impacts are on par. Main recommendations to SIB manufacturers are to source fossil‐free electricity for cell production and use hard carbon anodes based on lignin instead of phenolic resin. Additionally, since none of the assessed electrolytes had clearly lower cradle‐to‐gate impacts than any other, more research into SIB electrolyte materials with low environmental and resource impacts should be prioritized. An improvement of the SIB cell production model would be to obtain large‐scale production data specific to SIB cells.

Environmental potential of fungal insulation: a prospective life cycle assessment of mycelium-based composites

PurposeBio-based insulation materials are one of the most promising solutions for reducing the environmental impacts of building envelopes. Among these materials, the environmental benefits of mycelium-based materials have merely been investigated, despite their promising technical and thermal properties. In this paper, we perform a first prospective cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA) of mycelium-based composite blocks.MethodsAn attributional cradle-to-gate LCA of the laboratory production of mycelium-based composites was first performed, including 11 environmental impact indicators. Then, scenarios were defined to scale up the technology to the level of industrial production, including the remaining life cycle modules to perform a cradle-to-grave analysis. Biogenic and metabolic carbon were considered by applying the static −1/+1 approach and following the current LCA standards. Future-oriented energy and transport mixes were also included as an additional scenario, systematically modifying both the foreground and background data. Finally, the industrially scaled-up technology and alternative insulation materials were compared with these future conditions (as applied to both materials).Results and discussionConsidering climate change, the results are encouraging in comparison to those for traditional plastic insulation, but do not necessarily surpass those for other existing materials such as rock wool. However, trade-offs are observed in other indicators, for which mycelium-based composites tend to perform worse than traditional insulation materials. The industrial scale-up reduced impacts for most indicators, but a considerable trade-off was observed with regard to terrestrial ecotoxicity. The main driver for the remaining greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions was found to be the electricity use during the manufacturing phase. We consider the inclusion of the other life cycle stages as relevant, as this increased the GHG emissions by 10%. Limitations of the current LCA standards, however, are noted and discussed, especially regarding the cascading use of biogenic materials, and highlight the relevance of this case study.ConclusionsMycelium-based composites show a potential for future development, but careful attention should be paid to reducing electricity needs in their manufacturing process. Further improvements could also be made by using fast-growing biogenic materials as a substrate. In particular, we encourage researchers to include all of the life cycle stages in future studies, especially if biogenic emissions are considered.

Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of Two Supercapacitor Architectures

Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of Two Supercapacitor Architectures